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Israel-Saudi Deal, Palestinians & Iran Agreement: What’s on Agenda of Biden's Mideast Trip?_我的网站

来源: 新华社
14:08:18

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Israel-Saudi Deal, Palestinians & Iran Agreement: What’s on Agenda of Biden's Mideast Trip?_我的网站

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一 |     During the two-day visit, the American head of state will meet with Israel's top officials. These will include the new prime minister, Yair Lapid, alternate PM Naftali Bennett, as well as opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu. He is also set to visit an Iron Dome missile defense base, a system developed jointly by the US and Israel.,The main focus of the US president’s upcoming trip will be a stop in Saudi Arabia, Danny Ayalon, Israel's former ambassador to the US, believes,"In the upcoming trip, the focus will be on Jeddah. Of course, the Saudis will not normalize relations with Israel but cooperation will be on the table.",Riyadh has repeatedly said that a normalization pact with Israel is not possible unless the Palestinian issue is resolved. Israel, which has just entered a transitional period ahead of the November midterm elections is not in a position to offer concessions, apart from symbolic gestures such as granting more work permits to Gazans or allowing crowds to pray at the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.,But what Israel can offer to the Saudis, Ayalon says, is a solution to an issue that has been bothering them for years – control over the Tiran and Sanafir Islands in the Red Sea.,The two islands were under Saudi jurisdiction until 1950, when Riyadh transferred them to Egypt. Israel captured them during the Six Day War, but later returned them to Cairo as part of the 1979 bilateral peace treaty.,Egypt has been in control of the islands since then, but in 2016 President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi promised to give them back to the Saudis. However, for that to happen, he needs the consent of the Israelis, due to the terms of the 1979 agreement.,Back then, Israeli consent was not given. Now, however, it seems to be on the table, Ayalon says. He stresses that Israel may use the issue as a bargaining chip in talks on the opening of Saudi airspace for Israeli planes or on defense cooperation. The latter is crucial for Riyadh, he says, especially in light of the threat emanating from Yemen's Houthi rebels, linked to Iran.,"Of course, the Saudis will continue with their lip service to the Palestinians, but cooperation will be taking place under the radar. However, the scope of that cooperation will not be big", the former diplomat says. "There is a generation gap between the Saudi king and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, and unless there is a shift, nothing will move towards the formalization of ties," he added.,Palestinian Issue,Before Biden came to power, he vowed to support the two-state solution, resume funding for the Palestinians that was halted under his predecessor, and open the American Consulate in East Jerusalem to counter balance their embassy in the western part of the disputed city.,More than a year after his inauguration, many of the issues he had promised to resolve are still up in the air.,The US Consulate hasn't been opened in East Jerusalem yet, and doubts run high as to whether it ever will. The Palestinian Liberation Organization's office in Washington that was shut under President Donald Trump is still closed. Funds that were given to the Palestinians in the past have not been fully restored.,The Palestinians have repeatedly stressed their dissatisfaction with the lack of progress on their front, and Ayalon says the arrival of Biden is aimed at calming the mood.,"There won't be any breakthrough on the Palestinian front. But Biden does want to take some credit for the economic assistance to the Palestinians, and he does want to bolster the security cooperation between Israel and the PA, sending a message to Hamas.",Iran Nuclear Deal,Although last week another round of talks between the US and Iran ended in a stalemate, Washington is still interested in pursuing that path.,If a deal is reached, the US would remove many of its sanctions from the Islamic Republic in exchange for the ability to supervise Tehran's nuclear program.,The deal taking shape is disturbing officials in Jerusalem and Riyadh, who claim that a nuclear Iran might threaten their security, allegations Tehran has repeatedly denied. Ayalon says Biden's visit will try to mitigate the damage. He will also try to "get the support of Israel for the deal". But the Jewish state is unlikely to be convinced, even under the leadership of the more liberal Yair Lapid.,Israel’s Prime Minister Claims Iran ‘Dangerously Close’ to Obtaining Nuclear Weapons12 June, 00:10 GMT,The Israeli PM is heading to Paris on Tuesday, where he will meet President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the deal with Iran and attempts by the Islamic Republic to remove its Revolutionary Guards from the list of terror organizations.,In September, he is also planning a trip to New York, where he will address the United Nations General Assembly and raise the issue of Iran once again.,"Lapid is likely to tell Biden that Israel is not bound by this agreement, if it does happen. Israel will emphasize that it will have a free hand when it comes to Iran, and that also means that it can adhere to plan B," Ayalon said, referring to a military option.,Russia's Operation in Ukraine,However, Biden is not only going to Israel for the sake of regional issues, the former diplomat claims. His visit to Israel and Saudi Arabiacomes amid raging hostilities in Ukraine, and the US head of state will try to convince the two Middle Eastern nations to stand by the side of Washington, he adds.,Although Saudi Arabia cracked under the American pressure to pump more oil, prices on crude continue to climb, shaking the economies of the US and Europe.,Israel, on its part, has also taken a lukewarm approach vis-a-vis Ukraine. Although it has publicly denounced Russian actions, absorbed thousands of Ukrainian refugees, and provided thousands more with medical and humanitarian assistance, it has not joined sanctions against Russia. And Ayalon says his country is not planning to change its course.,"President Vladimir Putin has been friendly with Israel for all these years. Plus, we have a big Russian population in this country. So I doubt Israel will join the Western sanctions against Moscow. It is simply not in our interests," he concluded.。    

2024年1月31日,新加坡城市天际线 来源:新华社
今天(5月15日),执政20年的李显龙,将这个连通东西方的“十字路口”国家的命运,正式交到了黄循财手中。
自1965年建国,新加坡历经李光耀、吴作栋、李显龙三任总理,也因此被戏称为“李家坡”。

二 | 随着李光耀逝世,李显龙退居幕后,新加坡“李家天下”是否迎来终章?

多年铺垫,“接棒”的黄循财,又如何在现实与地理的“十字路口”,带领新加坡人民,继续缔造“弱者奇迹”?
新加坡一直被看成 “李家天下”。自1965年独立以后,新加坡至今有三位总理,分别是执政31年的李光耀、执政14年的吴作栋和执政20年的李显龙。而很多人认为,李光耀与吴作栋关系匪浅,吴作栋当时任总理是李光耀为儿子李显龙当总理铺路。
上世纪80年代,李显龙正式步入政坛,曾担任新加坡国防部第二部长、贸工部长、副总理兼财政部长等职。

三 | 2004年8月他从吴作栋手中接过接力棒,出任新加坡第三任总理并连任至今。

李显龙最初的计划是在2022年自己70岁生日之前移交权力,卸任总理职务。但新冠疫情打乱了这一计划,他当时向新加坡人民承诺,将与现任和第四代领导团队一起,带领国家“渡过难关”。

四 |  

浙江外国语学院美国研究中心主任王冲在接受潮新闻记者采访时表示,李显龙辞职,从个人而言,是他之前设定的目标即70岁之前交棒,从国家而言,他认为领导层的稳定更迭,对国家发展是好事,“总理黄循财当过财政部长,当过他的助理,当过副总理,经过他多年的提拔考验,他认为已经可以承担总理之大任。”
此次,新加坡政权交接,李显龙没“传位”给李家第三代,是否将来也会为儿子“铺路”呢?
“至少目前并没有看出来李显龙是在为儿子铺路,李显龙的意愿以及权威并没有到他父亲李光耀这样的程度。”王冲认为,李光耀作为开国元勋有权威来做这样的事,中间让吴作栋来过渡。

五 | 但至于李显龙是否给二儿子铺路,“这个需要慢慢观察。

六 | ”

李显龙有三个儿子,大儿子李毅鹏,患有白化病和自闭症;二儿子李鸿毅,毕业于麻省理工经济学专业,在谷歌做过一段时间的产品经理,如今,在新加坡政府科技局(Gov Tech)担任领导层职务;三儿子李浩毅,也毕业于麻省理工,专业是计算机科学和工程,如今是非常资深的程序员。
可以看得出,出生于1987年的李鸿毅,是最被看好接班的人,但今年刚满36岁,资历尚浅。不知道,李显龙是否也是与父亲一样在等待合适的时机。

七 |

不过,“铺路”过程不会一帆风顺。早在2017年7月17日,新加坡就出现针对总理李显龙的示威集会,示威者打出“新加坡属于新加坡人民,而不是李家”的标语,要求对李显龙进行独立调查。
事实上,示威集会之前,这场 “李家内斗”风波已经持续一个多月。2017年6月14日,李光耀的女儿李玮玲和次子李显扬突然发表联合声明,指责兄长李显龙滥权,并意图阻挠他们履行父亲的遗愿,拆除位于欧思礼路38号的李光耀故居。

八 | 此后,风波愈演愈烈,李玮玲和李显扬质疑李显龙试图利用父亲影响力“建立王朝”,双方第三代家族成员也被卷入其中。

九 |

据媒体报道,处于争议漩涡中心的李显龙儿子李鸿毅6月15日下午在个人脸书主页上发出一条简短的信息:“我对政治真的没兴趣”。
与“李家”在新加坡的崇高地位不同,51岁的黄循财出身普通,不是来自所谓的“精英家庭”。从小在组屋(组屋是由新加坡建屋发展局承担建筑的公共房屋,大部分分布在大城市,多提供给中下阶层家庭居住)长大、家庭并不富裕,但却是一名学霸,早年获政府奖学金赴美留学。
他的从政履历与吴作栋、李显龙也没有多大差别,都有过参加国会选举、进入政府部门、进入核心权力机构人民行动党中央执行委员会这个过程。

十 |

在上个月新加坡总理公署发表声明宣布新加坡人民行动党的议员一致支持黄循财担任新总理后,黄循财就在社交平台脸书上发帖:承诺将尽全力肩负起新加坡总理的新任务,并呼吁所有新加坡人与他携手共创美好未来。
“我怀着谦卑的心和深深的责任感接受这个任务,我承诺我将奉献一切担任此责,我的每份精力都将用来为我们的国家和人民服务。

十一 | ”黄循财在视频中表示。

中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院东南亚研究中心副主任郭继光在接受潮新闻采访时表示,黄循财接棒后,新加坡的政局应该会保持稳定性和延续性,不会有太大变动。“在黄循财接棒之后,未来应该也还是会保持一贯的大国均衡政策。”郭继光认为,新加坡将一方面与西方国家保持政治、经济与安全的联系,另一方面也会与中国加强经济合作。
王冲认为,影响未来新加坡走向主要还是看全球经济与中美关系。

十二 |

全球经济走势好,全球化继续往前发展,而不是倒退或停滞。这对新加坡是有利的。

十三 | 另外中美关系缓和,新加坡可以不用选边站,可以做一个协调或者说是和中美同时保持沟通的角色,对他的发展是有利的。

王冲还提醒,新加坡在东盟也是重要的一份子。“如何处理和马来西亚的关系,如何处理自己国家发展与东盟区域发展的协调关系,这是对他们方向的考验。”
在最新的访谈中,参考消息援引英国《经济学人》周刊网站对黄循财的专访,他认为在任期间面临的挑战是继续前任的工作。

十四 | 他说:“我们一直把自己视为弱者,我们将永远是一个只有通过我们人民的集体意志才能缔造的难以置信的国家。我的任务是尽可能长地让这个奇迹持续下去。”

2024年2月15日,新加坡无人机灯光秀 来源:新华社
奇迹之下的新加坡,扼守马六甲海峡,连通东西方世界,在区位上占尽地利优势,又紧紧抓住时代机遇,通过几代人的努力,将其打造成发达国家。
约翰·柯蒂斯·佩里(John Curtis Perry)在《新加坡:不可思议的崛起》一书中写道:“乍看之下,一块赤道边上的丛林沼泽似乎不具备打造世界级城市的绝佳条件。

十五 | 在新加坡之前,热带地区还没有全球性大都市,之后也没再出现。”

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